A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
