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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the current race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still